At present, Asia is like a powder keg with multiple fuses being lit at the same time.
There are at least four conflicts in Asia in which neither side can retreat because the stakes are too high and there is no hope of a comeback. To retreat would mean losing the entire battle.
They are:
- The United States and China are locked in a trade dispute.
- China and Hong Kong are locked in a battle over Hong Kong’s status.
- India and Pakistan are locked in a showdown over Kashmir.
- Iran in the Persian Gulf.
Let’s do it bit by bit, in no particular order:
India vs India Pakistan
Days ago, India moved to scrap the special status of “half” of Kashmir and make it a normal part of the country. What followed was a build-up of troops (including from the Pakistani side), and the territory moving into a Almost complete lockdown.
As well as solidifying India’s claim to the region – which is disputed by Pakistan, with both countries claiming all of Kashmir – the move also ensures an end to the Muslim majority, allowing Indians to buy property and move in. There is no doubt that this is the plan.
Pakistan cannot sit still and India cannot retreat.
It is important to know that Kashmir is also the source of almost all of India’s water, so controlling the area is of strategic importance.
Adding fuel to the fire, both Modi and Khan face domestic audiences – hard-liners in the regime and ultra-nationalist, religious-chauvinist voters – that push them into confrontation and punish them for being seen as “soft” on their enemies. So they may be forced to escalate against their better judgment – especially Mr Khan, while Mr Modi is escalating entirely of his own volition.
Both countries possess nuclear weapons. However, as far as conventional armies are concerned, Pakistan is completely at a disadvantage. If a war breaks out, Pakistan may want to launch nuclear weapons.
Oh, and Pakistan has a special defense relationship with China, India’s main regional rival. You can see how things got out of control.
USA VS. China
The United States and China are engaged in a (so far mostly economic) superpower battle, which may be the biggest news in the world right now.
Trump announced further tariffs on Chinese imports, and China devalued the yuan, plunging global markets into an abyss. Trump called China a currency manipulator.
The stakes are high. If the United States allows China to continue its trajectory, the loss of economic advantage and geopolitical hegemony is a matter of time, if not already happening. China will never be weaker than it is now, so now is the perfect time to act.
(Actually, the best time to act was in the 1990s, but the Western world was obsessed with the smug myth of the “end of history” that both China and Russia would liberalize and join the international order. China and Russia saw this as a trap and refused to do so).
The United States believes that it cannot retreat, otherwise China will dominate the world.
China, on the other hand, believes that it cannot back down because this would mean accepting a subordinate role in world affairs and being forever overshadowed by the United States. In their current national narrative of “China returning to its rightful place at the center of the world,” this is simply not an option.
This fight is an absolute win for both sides.
This is the decisive showdown that will change the relative and absolute trajectories of both countries for the rest of the century.
China has risen peacefully, but they have never said they will continue to rise peacefully.
Internally, Xi Jinping is likely to be under intense pressure – the Chinese Communist Party’s power is based on achieving prosperity – and the regime is likely to become deeply insecure should the economy suffer a major blow. Revolution and civil war are not impossible. Related instructions:
China VS Hong Kong, China
If Hong Kong’s protesters go home, Hong Kong’s special status and treaty protections will end – Hong Kong will be fully integrated into China (against China’s commitments), and no doubt some dissidents and local politicians will disappear.
Nor can the Communist Party back down, as it cannot withstand any successful challenge to its authority.
At the same time, Hong Kong is not only about Hong Kong, but also about Taiwan. China’s current perfidy towards Hong Kong exposes that its “one country, two systems” promise to try to trick Taiwan into unifying is hollow and will be broken, just as it is currently being broken in Hong Kong.
(Fun fact – the Taiwanese government in turn considers itself the legitimate government of all of China.)
The Chinese know what they fear – the entire history of China is a cycle of imperial consolidation, disintegration, warring states, and rebellion. brutal rebellion. China stands ready to divide itself at the first sign of weakness in the central authority, and/or signs of economic crisis. Now it faces the immediate possibility of both happening simultaneously.
With the exception of Iran’s attempt to control the Strait of Hormuz, all of these scenarios are exceptionally dangerous because all participants have irreversible stakes.
In addition to the enormous difficulties of de-escalation, all of these scenarios have the potential to spark wider conflict. These can get nasty – Asia is not known for restraint and humanitarian concerns in war, and China in particular – its conflicts are among the bloodiest in history.
An Asian land war involving China, or a Chinese civil war, would cause casualties that would make the casualties of World War I and World War II pale in comparison. Casualties in the hundreds of millions are not out of the question – according to some estimates, China’s death toll in the disaster reached nine figures. Taiping Rebellion In the 19th century there were no modern weapons. It’s best not to imagine what they might do with them.
So let’s look forward to four miracles.
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